Will Apple’s iPhone live up to its hype and spark another technology revolution? The answer won’t be known until Apple ships the device in June. Still, a Penn State University tech guru (John Jordan) has developed an intriguing list of reasons the iPhone will either be a huge hit or a massive disappointment.

Here’s an abbreviated version of Jordan’s analysis, boiled down by The VAR Guy…

The iPhone could fail if:

  1. It proves to be too expensive
  2. The user interface/form factor is cumbersome
  3. It does too many things not so well, instead of one or two things really well
  4. It suffers from poor battery life, durability, voice quality or data security
  5. AT&T can’t hold up its end of the bargain
  6. Apple can’t match the power of the cell phone industry’s incumbents
  7. There’s a disconnect with demographics; 15-to-30-year-olds may be least able to afford the device
  8. Apple moves too far away of its comfort zone and can’t master telecom supply chains

Now, for the flipside of the arguement. The iPhone could succeed if:

  1. Apple has truly invented a new category of device and learned from the Motorola ROKR music player+phone
  2. Its user interface transcends everyhing else in the category, thanks to its simplicity
  3. Its industrial design once again delivers an unsurpassed “cool” factor
  4. Apple’s vast army of users races to sync the iPhone with their PCs
  5. It works within mobile broadband networks, including WiFi hotspots, WiMAX and other broadband systems
  6. The demographics align, and 20-somethings increasingly replace their landline phones with a tablet-phone-music player
  7. It finds a killer applications–such as visual voice mail (browsing and managing voice messages from the screen)
  8. Businesses treat it as a secure, wireless Unix terminal that can run mission-critical applications

Hmmm. For iPhone to fulfill points 7 and 8, The VAR Guy believes, Apple will need to partner with companies like Cisco on unified communications. In fact, Apple and Cisco have been discussing a relationship, but Cisco CEO John Chambers isn’t quite ready to announce any potential agreements just yet.

For the record, The VAR Guy believes the iPhone will be a hit, selling anywhere from 3.2 million to 7 million units in its first year.

And please note, once again: The lists above are simplified versions of John Jordan’s in-depth analysis. Be sure to check out his original post at http://earlyindications.blogspot.com/.

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3 Comments on “Apple iPhone: 8 Reasons to Believe (And 8 Reasons to Worry)”

  1. Gary Baker Says:
    April 10th, 2007 at 7:43 am

    Great article

  2. Craig Kovatch Says:
    April 11th, 2007 at 8:20 am

    Neither of these lists is particularly insightful or new. The “Failures” list, in particular, is sort of ridiculous — when’s the last time Apple designed a cumbersome interface, or created a feature-bloated device? Those points are diametrically opposed to Apple’s foundation and philosophy.

    Likewise, points 2-5 on the “success” list are more-or-less given.

    Thanks for the boildown, but if this is an accurate distillation, I find the original author’s research to be an attention-seeking farce. Reminds me of Dvorak’s recent comments.

    I think it’s more likely that iPhone 1.0 will be, for the most part, great, with a few bumps along the road that will be smoothed out by the time the Asian/European releases come along Apple is never one to leave a product line alone for very long, they consistently and frequently revise, update, and add-on.

  3. Jim Says:
    April 13th, 2007 at 5:33 pm

    Hmmm. Wasn’t point 7 in the success list demonstrated in Jobs’ Keynote speech?

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