The VAR Guy

OK, so Dell’s desktop Linux PCs aren’t setting the world on fire. The PC giant has sold about 40,000 of the Ubuntu Linux PCs since introducing them at the end of July. That’s a run rate of about 8,000 per month. And one of those systems was sold to The VAR Guy. So what will Dell do next? End the Linux experiment based on slow sales? Guess again.

The ocean called. They’re running out of shrimp. The VAR Guy consumed a few pounds of shrimp cocktail at OnForce last night during an open house to celebrate the company’s new headquarters. He stopped chewing long enough to hear a few good rumors — including one involving OnForce launching its online marketplace for VARs in Germany and the U.K.

Circle the date: Dell is inviting VARs to participate in a major channel briefing from the company on December 5. The VAR Guy will be all ears. Care to listen in on the discussion and potentially pose some questions? Here are the details.

The VAR Guy isn’t panicking. But Goldman Sachs is warning investors that software sector sales could be softer than expected in 2008. You can find a good, quick summary of Goldman’s views over on Barron’s. The VAR Guy, you’ll recall, is wondering if open source software companies are immune to an economic slowdown — or at least better positioned than their closed-source rivals.

Yes, you can purchase a $200 Linux PC from Wal-Mart this holiday season. That’s great news for consumers and the open source movement. But a lot of bloggers, including The VAR Guy, need to remind readers that it might be wiser to look elsewhere for affordable, reliable Linux PCs. One prime stop should be ZaReason.com. Here’s why.

The VAR Guy is turning into a snowbird. The native New Yorker spent last week in sunny Orlando, riding some of the world’s best roller coasters. Next week, we hear, he plans to return to Florida — this time for a major Cisco Systems channel event that will boast several surprising twists.

The VAR Guy spent the weekend visiting retails stores, searching for digital bargains. He couldn’t help but notice all of the Dell PCs, monitors, printers and ink cartridges — yes, Dell ink — on retail store shelves. Back in the online world, Michael Dell’s managed services push makes his company the channel surprise of 2007. But will the retail and MSP moves reward Dell shareholders, partners and customers? The VAR Guy weighs in with his thoughts.

The VAR Guy just awoke from a 24-hour nap in Orlando, Florida. Too many roller coaster rides for our fearless world traveler? Nope. Some sort of virus zapped his energy. Still, he managed to push himself through Universal Orlando’s theme parks. And he’ll be blogging again full-time after the Thanksgiving holiday break here in the US. In the meantime, here’s The VAR Guy’s Top 10 Rides in Orlando.

Is this a dream or a nightmare for the channel? The VAR Guy is thrilled to hear Dell has acquired Everdream, a software-as-a-service (SaaS) specialist. But the folks over at those old channel publications will likely ask more questions about Dell’s intentions in the managed services market.

The VAR Guy certainly loves his iPhone. But he’s keeping a close eye on Google’s open source operating system for mobile phones, called Android. If Google plays its cards right, Android could be the operating system that allows dual-mode VoIP phones to flourish. Here’s a first-look at Android, directly from Google.

At first glance, The VAR Guy was underwhelmed by Dell’s decision to offer Sun Solaris on selected servers. But after an hour of digesting the news — and his lunch — The VAR Guy thinks this deal is a rare triple play for Dell, Sun and customers.

The VAR Guy has warned you for several months: Cable companies will wind up competing with VARs far more frequently in the months ahead. The latest example: Comcast is offering a set of managed IP services to small business customers. It’s a smart move by the cable provider. But the approach makes you wonder: How long before they offer managed security and other capabilities tied to IP services?

Interesting update from The Debian User, indicating that sub-$200 PCs running a variant of Ubuntu have sold out at Wal-Mart and ZaReason. I was at Wal-Mart Saturday. When I asked about the sub-$200 Linux PCs (built by Everex), the Wal-Mart sales team said they had never heard of it. Bummer.

A few years back, some proprietary hardware companies hit the panic button when Dell and Microsoft Windows moved into point-of-sale (POS) systems. Fast forward to the present, and open source is trying its hand at disrupting the POS market. You already know about Linux running on POS systems. Now, POS applications themselves are going open source. Here’s how.

Lofty oil prices. Sub-prime mortgage woes. Financial companies (Citigroup, Etrade) stumbling badly. Ouch. Ouch. And Ouch. Whispers of a potential recession ahead continue. That made The VAR Guy wonder: If the U.S. heads into a recession soon, are open source companies better positioned to weather the storm than their closed source counterparts? Let’s take a look.

The VAR Guy is starting to sound like a broken record (or a scratched CD, for those of you who don’t remember vinyl). Here’s the scoop: Avaya is the latest company to embrace the iPhone as a business device. Yes, a business device. Within the next year or so, as loyal readers here know, The VAR Guy expects the iPhone to emerge as major device for unified business communications.

Whenever The VAR Guy hears chatter about Novell, he thinks of Avis — the Number 2 rental car company that proudly declares “We try harder” as it pursues the market leader (Hertz, er, Red Hat). Hmmm. Is 2008 the year that all of Novell’s hard work in the open source market finally pushes the company into the fast lane? UBS, the Wall Street analyst firm seems to think so. But The VAR Guy isn’t so sure.

The iPhone remains The VAR Guy’s favorite digital device. But Flip, a $150 video camera from Pure Digital Technologies, has just made his favorites list as well. It’s a slick, simple device for solutions providers that want to make quick Web videos without spending a fortune doing so.

The VAR Guy is usually skeptical of software acquisitions. But IBM’s $5 billion buyout of Cognos, the business intelligence specialist, makes perfect sense. Here are four reasons why the pending deal, announced today, is a good fit for IBM.

Sorry if The VAR Guy has been a bit distracted lately. It seems he can’t stop playing with his iPhone. Business email. B2B website browsing. Business voicemail. Hmmm. Who says the iPhone is just for consumers? Certainly not The VAR Guy, who sees more and more business apps moving to the device. The latest example is an emergency notification system from MIR3.

Sometimes, reporters spend too much time looking at a tree and never see the bigger forest. For instance, lots of folks are writing about Novell changing its channel chief. Excuse The VAR Guy as he yawns. In fact, something far more strategic — and interesting — has occurred at Novell.

The following blog entry is a theory — rather than fact — from The VAR Guy. Based on some recent business moves at Dell, The VAR Guy thinks he knows where Michael next needs to spend Dell’s acquisition dollars. Ultimately, the king of direct sales will need to offer face-to-face support to small and mid-size businesses (SMBs). Here’s how The VAR Guy expects that strategy to play out — along with at least two potential acquisition targets for Dell.

The VAR Guy has never been known for his market timing. He loaded up on tech stocks in 2000 … and we all know how that strategy turned out over the next 18 months. Fast forward to 2007 and he’s spent this year singing Cisco’s praises. The networking company continues to deliver stellar results, but Cisco CEO John Chambers calls current enterprise sales conditions “lumpy.” That single word spooked Cisco investors, but let’s keep things in perspective folks.