Initially, The VAR Guy was upbeat about Google Android. But the more he hears about the mobile open source environment, the more he worries that Google is starting to resemble Microsoft. Here’s why.
First, please note: Sure, Microsoft and Google have their positive points. But the Android initiative is starting to resemble Microsoft’s classic strategy for Windows in the 1990s. Skeptical? Consider these classic tactics…
1. Announce Vaporware: Throughout the 1990s and even today, Microsoft often pre-announces products to engage and excite ISVs (independent software vendors). Win the ISV battle, and you’ll win the resulting product wars. It’s a smart strategy, and Google adopted it when the company announced the path to Android (check out this preview video of Android devices). But the strategy also has some downside: ISVs get early access to developer tools, but their work on an “emerging” platform often distracts them away from existing platforms and immediate business opportunities.
2. Dance Around Launch Dates: In the 1990s, readers picked up trade magazines to learn about the latest Windows product delay and revised target launched date. Today, Web sites and online forums are filled with rumors about Android delays, revised launch dates, and so on. By discussing potential launch dates long before a product ships, Microsoft (and now Google) attempt to “freeze” the market. They’re essentially telling ISVs and customers not to buy today’s hot product from a rival, because an even better toy is just around the corner. But the launch date often slips, and slips again.
3. Time for A Trim: During initial product discussions, Microsoft and Google each rattle off a lengthy list of features that they promise to support. But as deadlines approach, some of those features will wind up on the back burner. Perhaps they’ll make it into version 1.1, 2.0 or something even further off. Anybody else remember Windows NT Cairo’s Object File System? The VAR Guy is still waiting for that magic upgrade. Google is going through this exercise right now, and reports are swirling that promised Android features like BlueTooth won’t make it into the 1.0 release.
4. Ship, Then Hype: By the time the 1.0 release is available, it’s time to repeat the cycle and announce some more Vaporware. Upset about bugs in the 1.0 release? Don’t worry. Version 2.0 will be even better. At least, that’s what the marketing pundits will tell you.
Hopefully, Android won’t turn into Windows Vista — full of hype followed by unfulfilled promise.
Tags: Android Blue Tooth | Google Android | Microsoft Windows Vista | The VAR Guy
Interact: Add a Comment | Trackback Link | Permalink
Share:
Subscribe: RSS Feed
The VAR Guy on Facebook
The VAR Guy on Identi.ca
The VAR Guy on Twitter
The VAR Guy Newsletter
The VAR Guy's RSS Feed
The VAR Guy Live: Podcasts
Vaporware isn’t limited to microsoft or google. It’s a universal practice in the software industry.
I really on microsoftization that google is now following. Still they have the same competitor : Apple.
Move along .. there is nothing to see here:
Stick to the facts:
1. They said they will ship second half of 2008. So they are still on time. On the 12/31/08 you can repost this again and it might be valid.
2. Android 1.0 will only miss the _APIs_ for accessing Bluetooth. BT will be there. APIs will probably come with an update.
This post makes you seem as Apple fan boy with FUD in mind. You can do better than that.
From the article’s title and it’s first lines I was expecting to read some interesting description of Google’s practices to attract, control and trap people to their new platform (the M$ way). Instead you talk about how the manage the hype and marketing the same way M$ does.
Well, my opinion is that this tricks get old and will have a lesser impact, as people now see them coming from the start.
The important stuff here is what you can deliver NOW and ALSO HOW REALLY OPEN (and OPENSOURCED) your platform is.
Let them play, if someone else comes with something that delivers more before them and is more open they will be in trouble. But it does not seem so for the time being, others deliver less or their platforms are TOO CLOSED.
@Tom: The VAR Guy actually is a Google fanboy… Runs portions of his business on Google Apps. But he doesn’t mind when readers sling mud about FUD. Let’s chat on 12/31/08 to see where things stand…
@Josvazg: The VAR Guy has heard from quite a few folks who worry that Android will be more closed than open…
While I love Google to bits, I must admit that one of their traits going back was to remain tight lipped about everything until they were able to launch, even if it remained in perpetual beta lol.
Maybe it’s just because it’s not an internal project but a coordination between hundreds of companies?
I will still give them the benefit of the doubt, for now.
I for one welcome our new Google overlords.
So let me get this straight
1) Annouce Vaporware : They said second half of 2008. Still leaving us months to go. Let’s not quite call it vaporware when in fact it is just impatience.
2) Dance around launch dates : Second half of 2008. While speculation has been around stating this month and that month, and even now some “rumors” have mentioned early ‘09… we still have a good portion of “second half of 2008″ to go. Again, before the stoning begins, let’s at least wait for a crime.
3) Time for a trim : “Reports are swirling” yet while these reports may be 100% true, I must point out once again “second half of 2008″. Keep your rants and flames ready to go for Jan 01. Until then it’s hard to complain that something promised isn’t in the package when the package isn’t even on sale yet.
4) Ship, then hype : Ever purchased any electronics ever?! Hmm, Laserdisk will be the future of movies… oh have you seen these awesome DVD’s?… BlueRay for life!! If a company put out one product and then stopped improving we would be toasting our bread over coals. Even the all powerful iphone has just put out an upgrade! (And they are even thinking about *heaven forbid* improving on that as well!!)
Like BobCFC hinted at, it’s tough to have an opensource project which involves pretty much any company that would like to participate, and not have ideas announced, and projected results hinted at and dates tossed around by countless people. But until those dates actually pass, and a product surfaces or sinks, everything is simply a rumor. It may turn out to be the best phone we have ever seen (for the moment) or it may turn out to be Googles biggest mistake to date. Either way, second half of 2008 still trudges on.
@NetApex: The VAR Guy has taken a few hits on this one, to be sure. Looks like he’s losing the debate war with his own readers on this one. Let’s hold off on a final score, though, until December 31 to see where we’re at. If Google hits the ship date with a solid product, The VAR Guy promises to eat crow and bow to your expertise.
Well now we can begin to disect the beast.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10048655-1.html
1) Vaporware comments dismissed - Check
2) Release date - Second half of ‘08 - Check
3) Bluetooth is going to be there, just not stereo - Check
4) Bugs… as I have yet to see “perfect” software from release date (Even WarhammerOnline after years of prep and beta testing has flaws), I am going to give the OS the benefit of the doubt and call it better than MS.
And think.. this is just the TMobile encarnation. Just wait until other carriers get their hands on it! As far as eating crow, I have heard it doesn’t taste so well. So skip the crow and join me in a slice of technolgical goodness instead.
NetApex: The VAR Guy knew you’d be coming back, so he threw himself on the sword yesterday and admitted he was wrong about Android. Basically, Google won the debate with The VAR Guy on all fronts.
Thanks for helping to keep The VAR Guy honest. Generally speaking, The VAR Guy is opinionated and plugged into the market — but he’s willing to admit when he’s dead wrong.