Five Open Source Predictions The VAR Guy Got Wrong In 2008
Dec. 26th, 2008 by The VAR Guy
The VAR Guy often crows about his successful predictions. But some of his blog posts — including a few about emerging open source solutions like Google Android and Ubuntu Server Edition — missed the mark badly in 2008. Time for The VAR Guy to take a break from holiday meals. Instead, he needs to eat some crow for these five open source statements that were off target in 2008.
1. Too Bullish On the Sun-MySQL Deal: When Sun Microsystems acquired MySQL in January 2008, The VAR Guy thought it was a fantastic move by Sun. (In fact, our resident blogger still thinks highly of the acquisition.) But at $1 billion, Sun likely paid too much for MySQL just before the economy truly imploded. And the MySQL channel partner program hasn’t exactly been generating a lot of buzz.
2. Too Negative On Novell: The VAR Guy also predicted deals like Sun-MySQL would kill Novell. His thesis: Novell’s SUSE Linux team would feel the squeeze as open source applications companies merged with one another or moved closer to Red Hat’s universe. In reality, Novell’s SUSE Linux sales grew as fast as — or faster than — the overall Linux market in 2008.
3. Too Bullish On Canonical Ubuntu Server Edition: This was supposed to be the year that Ubuntu jumped from Linux desktops to the server. But Sun Microsystems — a struggling company — is the only major server maker that promotes Ubuntu on the server.
The VAR Guy’s sister site, WorksWithU.com (the independent guide to Ubuntu) is tracking hundreds of Ubuntu server and desktop deployments as part of the WorksWithU 1000 global reader survey. But Ubuntu Server Edition will require far more application and ISV (independent software vendor) support to get IBM, Hewlett-Packard and Dell server folks in the game.
4. Too Upbeat About Mandriva: The VAR Guy wrote a glowing post about Mandriva Linux’s growing list of global IT channel partners. But our resident blogger failed to mention executive changes and layoffs at Mandriva. In the official Mandriva blog on December 3, the company’s new CEO conceded:
“Dear Friends, Mandriva may have caught flu but is alive and very much kicking.”
In stark contrast, The VAR Guy on December 16 made it sound like Mandriva was thriving. Clearly, he miss-diagnosed the situation.
5. Too Skeptical About Google Android: The VAR Guy thought Google Android would suffer from multiple project delays and canceled features. Instead, Google surprised The VAR Guy with a solid 1.0 release, forcing our resident blogger to admit he badly misread the project’s progress.
What else did The VAR Guy get wrong in 2008? Surely, his wife has been keeping a list of errors, missteps and false claims. But readers will have to settle for the five items above.
The VAR Guy is updated multiple times daily. Don’t miss a single post. Subscribe to his newsletter, RSS and Twitter feed.
Read More About This Topic
Share This Post
Posted In: Mobile Technology | Open Source
Tags: Sun Microsystems
Interact: Add a Comment | Trackback Link | Permalink
Subscribe: RSS Feed
Tags: Sun Microsystems
Interact: Add a Comment | Trackback Link | Permalink
Subscribe: RSS Feed
Don't miss Charlene O'Hanlon's weekly columns...
I got all of my 2008 predictions right – so I will continue my tradition of not publishing them.
2009 will be a bit trickier because of economic concerns.
My! The worst was the Android prediction. The reason I say that is because everyone focuses on the Android – SmartPhone connection. Android is more than that however.
How about Android in a coke dispenser? Don’t laugh. Android has all the needed bits including communications. Such a deployment would mean that vending machines are only serviced when they reach a certain trigger level.
I see that as Android’s ultimate state. Deployed in remote connected devices with interfaces other than those related to cellular use.
You were not wrong about Novell. They operate at a loss (about $17 million) and their stock sank by about 50%.
Roy: Your points are well-taken, but The VAR Guy must concede that the original blog headline — suggesting Novell had just died because of the Sun/MySQL deal — was harsh.
As you point out, Novell still has its challenges. And the SUSE business is less than 20% of Novell’s annual revenue. Novell must do a far, far better job describing how the other major bulk of its business aligns with SUSE….
JohnMc: Yes, The VAR Guy dropped the (crystal) ball badly with Android.
Ubuntu Server. There is no need to be genius that new server distro (Debian based at that) would make any splash. On low end Linux server space is filled with home built systems. On higher end you have RH and SUSE with Oracle/etc certified systems. It is a space hard to penetrate, if you do not have any distinct features.
MySQL. I think it would take time, but unless Sun collapses, the prospect are quite bright. Before, many companies were dismissing MySQL as a toy. Now, e.g. Ericsson uses MySQL for some of its products. Server space is inertial and planning for many projects takes much longer than one year. Be patient. Industry especially in its financial state might not be capable paying more of Oracle fat bills. MySQL prospects are pretty good and its support might be a gold mine. Though Sun troubles might slow its expansion. (N.B. Same goes to PostgreSQL – it started to make inroads in cloud space.)
Android. Flame me all you want, but better half of Android credits this year should go to Apple. Apple App Store -finally- have happened and telcos can’t insist on mobile platforms being closed and proprietary anymore. People voted with their wallets. Competition restarts again.
Novell. People constantly disregard past experience of Novell in business space. Lots of people are negative on M$-Novell deal. Many made mistake claiming that Novell became an evil corporation. I’m tired correcting people: Novell was always evil business corporation. They boast one of the best lawyer team in industry. They used proprietary NetWare to lock-in customers for years before. They simply were not as successful as M$ was. SUSE acquisition was change for good. Yet, to compete with M$ they have to remain the evil business corporation, indulging themselves on all possible dirty deals. And change from evil corporation to good netizen doesn’t happen overnight. We have to sit and wait. I do not think 2009 would be deciding year for Novell, but 2010 would like be.
yep, Novell just as evil as M$. Disagree with concept that they could ever be a good netizen. As long as it is profitable to be a good netizen they might, but they will always try to lock you in to their way, just like M$. Just like both companies, they even screw their own.
The VAR guy needs to not give up his day job, and actually start “reporting” on things he actually knows about
Perhaps the VAR GUY should not give up his day job, and work out difference to what you want to see, and realality.
Might of been easier to state what you said that was right, you know about the little boy who cried wolf ??
I was right about everything in 2008. … Even when I was wrong. That was just deliberate so I didn’t make everybody else look bad ;o)
You weren’t really being harsh when saying that Novell would feel the squeeze with the Sun/MySQL deal. That’s mererly a prediction. Being harsh was every major blog site attacking Novell for trying to gain market share over Red Hat amongst other Linux distributions. Makes since for Novell in the Linux world in my opinion. yea, maybe they went about it the wrong way, but in the times of a crummy economy, you do what you have too. I think their release of OES 2 SP1 and perhaps SLES 11 in the near future, you’ll be a seeing a stronger, broader Novell in 2009. Thanks to Novell for making our backend smoother with things like Domain Services for Windows, iPrint, iFolder and so on.
[...] VarGuy’s Bad Predictions of 2008 [...]
I wouldn’t fret about Ubuntu Server. It’s gaining quiet ground and strong technical love – very strong. Many roots feel forever betrayed by RedHat’s idiotic switcharoo split to Fedora or else charging arms and legs; I know of several dozen such people. That killed the RedHat dream and promise. I’ve personally switched over dozens of servers from RedHat whatever to Ubuntu. Ubuntu is doing what RH should have done, had they not gone greedy and hurtful. In places where RH/CentOS has not yet gone Ubuntu, it’s solely for larger business reasons. Ubuntu feels like it’s in exactly the same place that all the other would-bes were/are until they break the big ice. One crack is all it takes for everything to fracture. Ubuntu: keep the dream, keep allegiance to little guys, keep your stuff working. Offer an edgier version alongside a stabler version. Let people know you have funding and solid guys working on the distros and code constantly. You’re on the right track.
Bill: You’ve revived an old conversation on this site. The VAR Guy appreciates it. Are you a VAR? Solutions provider? IT manager? Some other role? Please keep The VAR Guy posted. Our resident blogger would like to hear more about your Ubuntu migrations and experiences.
-TVG