People want a computer that is “good enough”. a 1024×768 display that can play full speed video and run FireFox at a decent speed meets that spec.If you can run flashplayer and web 2.0 apps on a piece of hardware the computer is “good enough”.

So computers have been good enough since 2003/2004. As 2004 technology gets older, the price drops on it. There will always be a market for more expensive computers that can do more.

But there will also always be a market for a sub $200.00 netbook that is “good enough”. Micorosft will have to make some serious concessions about XP to get into that market. If Adobe gets the FlashPlayer 10 running on an ARM cpu and $100.00 netbooks are possible.

What will Microsoft do to stop some Chinese knock off cell phone manufacturer from selling an ARM based 1 gig ram, 16 gig ssd, 1024×768 10″ form factor laptop for $125.00? Microsoft has NOTHING that will run on that hardware. WinCE is called wince for a reason. Linux will provide a full desktop experience and can be customized. A non-computer company that is not beholden to Redmond for advertising money and has already been selling these things in China for a year will be hard to stop.

At $100-$125 it would be hard not to keep a few of these around the house.

What I asserted is that Windows 7 is NOT a contender in the low-cost NetBook market. For the simple reason that a GNU/Linux equipped NetBook offers more software for less money.

What I also asserted is that Microsoft is well aware of this and is quite right to be scared about it – Microsoft have shown commendable fore-sight in picking up threats. They have however, historically, not always done the right thing to address said threats.

And finally, I asserted that Microsoft is being hurt by whatever numbers of GNU/Linux NetBooks are being sold – they may be a small percentage when compared to the Desktop and Laptop markets. But what they do is make consumers aware that it is possible to get a low-cost, ultra-portable that is very capable at browsing, VoIP and offers a high level of compatibility with Microsoft Office (via OpenOffice) at a fraction of the price (when you add Microsoft Office license costs to a NetBook, the GNU/Linux option starts becoming very compelling indeed).

And in times like these, cost is an important factor for everyone.

I’m an Ubuntu user and when I need to run Windows I try to do it on a “VirtualBoxed XP”, having said that…

Microsoft Windows IS NOT fading away!, it’s not “Game Over” just because Vista IS a crap, or even if W7 is Vista II.

Most of the Netbooks sold today are sold with, guess what? yes a Windows OS?
Ok, yes it is XP most of the time, not Vista, so what?

It is embarrassing that Vista is so crap, but maybe even more embarrassing for us, the Linux users, that we are still competing with XP, an OS from 2002.

I don’t see Linux eating up the desktop market anytime soon, and it will have to ask Apple permission before becoming the first alternative to Windows.

On the Netbook market, just the same. Most people will hold on XP till they can ‘jump’ to 7 o whatever makes for a “better than Vista” OS.

MS Windows will fade a way some time, makeing M$ loose its monopoly out of self-complacency, but it will be more slowly, or maybe it’ll be because desktops get replaced by or transformed into a totally different thing.

I’m pretty sure that the only reason I had what problems I DID have was trying to force unsupported hardware to work with it. Granted it SHOULD be supported, but that was ATi’s decision not to create drivers for my old 9250 even for Vista. Any machine that was “Vista CAPABLE” should actually run 7 fairly well. Even on 512MB of RAM, even though at least a gig makes it comfortable.

It pains me to say it, but they’re at least on the right track with this one. Still a LONG way to go, but on the right track.

Except maybe the new taskbar. They’ve finally dumbed it down enough that it’s truly stupid.

Indeed. The ghost of the Netscape debacle has come back to bite them in their complacent and unsuspecting gluteus maximus.

In that instance they could afford to give away IE. In this instance the choices are harder and more painful: keep reducing the prices of their highly profitable Microsoft Windows/Office franchises. Which of course, eats into profit margins and hurts them across the board – all large licensees use GNU/Linux to indulge in some very serious Microsoft arm-twisting.

All good for the customer of course. Which is why I love Free Software . Personally, I neither use nor endorse software not covered by a GNU or OSS-certified license.

Remains to be seen really. And I’ll believe it when I see it.

Once a “Netbook” exceeds a certain maximum price-point, it is no longer a Netbook but a compact laptop. A NetBook is different. So let’s see if Microsoft can compete at the low end of the market.

As an aside, disruptive technologies always address a new market-space (e.g. the ultra-portable, robust, low-cost netbook), do not compete against established market segments initially, but with time, simply replace established market segments.

Microsoft is behaving reactively – but is doing well to be scared. Historically though, Microsoft has failed to address the GNU/Linux threat adequately on many levels.

It’ll be interesting indeed how this turns out. But I wouldn’t expect Microsoft to be a viable contender in the low-cost space. I mean, you do have to factor in the license costs of the OS and the Office Suite – unless you’re suggesting that Microsoft pre-install OpenOffice on their Netbooks…

Where I work, we have many old and older machines. They barely run XP/2000 fully patched and virus-scanned. With GNU/Linux, they are like rockets. As thin clients, they have warp drives. My employer hates to spend money on IT. What is my employer going to do when the troops finally revolt and demand a refresh? Not Vista. Not Vista II.

I am in education where M$ has sworn not to lose to GNU/Linux. They have essentially committed to giving away their products to education when the organization has the spine to demand such treatment. With Vista X, one still has to spend so much more on the hardware to get any improvement that even free is too high a price to pay. They have nothing that can compete with a powerful GNU/Linux terminal server running a bunch of cheap fanless thin clients. Their products take about twice as much server to do the job that way.

They are again going to have to risk the good ‘ole upgrade path – which will be easy to do from Vista, but not so easy from XP.

I am going to be interested to see Microsoft’s pricing structure this time around. The reaction and subsequent fallout of Vista has awakened Microsoft to this reality: it has competitors.