Some people are scratching their heads over recent Windows 7-related comments attributed to Canonical CEO Mark Shuttleworth. But Shuttleworth’s words provide an important reminder that innovation and competition from Microsoft will help to propel Ubuntu and Linux forward. Skeptical? Read on.
Speaking with The Register, Shuttleworth apparently gave Microsoft a pat on the back for its Windows 7 efforts, and he declined to bash the forthcoming successor to Windows Vista.
Was Shuttleworth really “praising” Windows 7? I think not. Rather, I think Shuttleworth was stating that healthy competition drives IT innovation. And an innovative, motivated Microsoft is good for Linux.
The Threat From Within
Indeed, the biggest threat to Linux is arrogance rather than Microsoft. I hear from more and more Ubuntu and Linux converts who say the operating system is now good enough for the masses.
In some cases that’s certainly true. My oldest sons (ages 10 and eight) made the leap to Ubuntu without any “training.” Their conversion occurred when I purchased a Dell desktop with Ubuntu in mid-2007. I didn’t mention that it wasn’t a Windows device. They immediately figured out Firefox and OpenOffice and were off to the races. No training. No hassle.
Still, Linux fans have to remember that the vast majority of consumers and small business owners still have never heard of the operating system. And if they are familiar with Linux, they consider it a server system for corporate IT managers. (And yes, Ubuntu itself is gaining a bit of momentum on servers, according to our WorksWithU 1000 research survey.)
Windows 7 Changes Everything
Now here’s the ironic twist: When Microsoft ships Windows 7 in late 2009 or early 2010, the news will actually raise Linux’s profile on desktops and netbooks.
As PC vendors evaluate Windows 7′s pricing, they’ll scour the market for lower-cost options or simply embrace Linux on a few systems to gain pricing leverage when they negotiate Windows 7 licensing terms with Microsoft.
Similarly, the mainstream media — yes, even outlets like The Wall Street Journal and BusinessWeek — will mention Linux alternatives as they review Windows 7. Trust me: this is going to happen.
Generally speaking, Windows 7′s launch will be an industry inflection point for customers. And when customers are trying to make a purchase/upgrade decision they consider multiple directions.
That’s good news for Ubuntu and the broader Linux desktop movement, and Shuttleworth knows it. Today, he’s killing Microsoft with kindness. But when Windows 7 arrives, I’m sure he’ll strike a much more aggressive tone.
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Spot on. I like Shuttleworth’s take on this, and I do have a feeling your prediction about better news coverage for Linux will come true.
I agree with Shuttleworth in that competition is good and arrogance is the bane of all systems (OS X, Windows, Linux, specific distributions, etc.)
I’m not sure how much PC makers will scour for alternatives. I think to some degree they want to return to not having to think about it much, but not without bargaining power with Microsoft.
Joe makes some great points. The market is ripe for change, and Linux is poised to take a big bite out of Redmond’s market share. Joe hints at the arrogance of Linux (specifically Ubuntu) users and their insistence that Linux is not quite ready for prime-time as a consumer desktop. I agree. It needs to get there fast to capitalize on the points Joe has made in this article.
Linux works VERY well in academic and corporate environments where there is centralized control, a broad list of applications that work as well or better than their proprietary counterparts, and usually a standardized hardware platform for laptops and desktops.
Where Linux has the right ingredients, but still needs some serious help for “Joe six-pack”
- Package Management
It works well for admins, but It’s still too confusing for your average Windows or Mac user. Why does grandma need to know about avahi-daemon? Why can’t it just say “software update” and list the problems that the update will solve in non-technical terms?
- Audio
OSS? ALSA? JACK? WTF? There’s enough articles in the blogosphere about this topic. It’s a mess. It needs to be fixed.
- Drivers
Hardware vendors need to jump on board and start working with each other to create native drivers for Linux. In the wireless arena, community support has brought otherwise useless hardware into the fold, but it should be the vendors themselves writing the drivers.
Just some thoughts…
Wow, a ten year old figured out how to open Firefox, what a great OS. Did the ten year old also figure out how to get the wireless and audio working?
Ubuntu is very cool, I love to hobby around with it, but IMHO it is not ready for prime time. Every time I go to do something I wind up spending a few minutes configuring this and that, run into random glitchs constantly, find the open-source software to be (with some exceptions, like Open Office, Firefox, etc.) a pale imitation of the applications they are meant to replace, the list goes on.
My parents would not be able to deal with it. My coworkers would not be able to deal with it.
That being said, FOSS in general and Ubuntu in particular have come a long way in a short time and I look forward to the day when Ubuntu is a feasable replacement for Windows. And with the advent of cloud computing and the growth of open standards I think it should all come together pretty soon.
Elmer: Actually, yes — my 10-year-old son did figure out how to connect one of our Ubuntu laptops to our home WiFi network. But that’s because the laptop was pre-configured correctly to discover local WiFi networks. A lot of Ubuntu users aren’t quite so lucky when they try to find/connect to WiFi.
So, your point is well taken: FOSS and Ubuntu have come a long way but continued improvements are certainly needed.
@Elmer Gantry
Actually, the latest version Unbuntu 8.10 properly configured all of my devices on the new Dell latitude e6400 laptop (including sound and wifi). It even downloaded and automatically installed the binary drivers for it’s nvidia card with a single click.
I’ve been a Unix admin for 8 years and have only recently converted to Linux on the desktop due to frustration with Vista. Ubuntu has done a lot of good work on making Linux a very usable desktop.
The wireless was never a hassle for me to get working on how many laptops etc i installed linux on.
Audio and package management are really taken care of, by projects like pulse audio and package kit (which are damn great).
One thing that might still plague linux for some of the users would still be hardware compatibility, but that’s taken care of in direct amount to the market share linux gains. I hope in the near future i’ll be able to use my damn bluetooth headset with linux, because it’s the only thing i can’t really manage to do atm and it’s damn frustrating since i spent a lot of moneys :3 on it.
Linux won’t be the low price alternative when Microsoft subsidizes every purchase for a netbook with their OS. I moved from Ubuntu to Win7 on my Dell mini9 and it is better in every way. I believe Ubuntu has been going down hill for awhile with every new release. Quirky bugs that were not in the old releases that worked just fine are finding their way in more and more.
Joshua: Microsoft cannot afford to “subsidize” Windows on Netbooks. The low-ball licensing approach has already impacted Microsoft’s profits. Giving away a browser in the 1990s to destroy Netscape was one thing. But giving away Windows (indefinitely) to destroy Linux is a leap MSFT isn’t willing to make … yet.
Unfortunately, I must disagree with you on the topic of vendors seriously considering Linux systems as low-cost options. Perhaps I’m just jaded by my experience with more or less the exact same situation as when Vista came out, but I don’t honestly feel that vendors have truly looked at Linux seriously.
Several laptop vendors still refuse to sell their laptops with Linux on them, even though it’s relatively common knowledge that many of the popular distributions have proper driver support for their hardware, and there aren’t really all that many desktop vendors that do it, either.
On top of that, vendors like Dell refuse to mark their Linux options down anywhere near a reasonable amount (Less than $100 markdown on an Inspiron desktop? Seriously? I wouldn’t expect as much as it costs me to buy the same Vista installation they would be giving me, but that’s not even HALF of Vista’s pricetag)
Call me a cynic, but I just won’t believe that vendors will seriously consider Linux (and, consequentially, consumers won’t benefit from Linux) until I see it happening.
Ian: You’re allowed to disagree with WorksWithU. In fact, we encourage conflicting views in order to make sure our editorial coverage remains on target and in touch with our readers.
I understand your frustrations with Dell. But I do give Dell credit for preloading Ubuntu in mid-2007 … more recently we’ve seen more preloads involving HP/Novell SUSE Linux and even Lenovo introducing Linux netbooks.
So as a whole, it seems like PC makers are opening up a bit more to Linux. Can they do a better job promoting, supporting and pricing those Linux systems? Absolutely.
Glad to hear that your sons had no difficulty adjusting to Linux – certainly usability has come a long way … as long as everything works out of the box. My biggest complaint these days is with the stuff that *doesn’t* work.
How quickly would your sons have been able to get wireless up and running if they needed to compile a driver from source? Or use ndiswrapper?
One thing that OS X does right is keep the average Joe from needing to drop to a terminal to configure things. Linux isn’t there yet, but it’s moving in the right direction.
“Indeed, the biggest threat to Linux is arrogance rather than Microsoft. I hear from more and more Ubuntu and Linux converts who say the operating system is now good enough for the masses.”
I really don’t think it’s ready yet. Maybe if you’re only going to use two apps and your hardware is 100% supported out of the box, but most of the time it isn’t.
According to Ubuntu Forums polls, almost HALF of people upgrading to Intrepid or installing it for the first time had “many problems that I’ve not been able to solve” (compared to 30% for Feisty). It looks like the releases are decreasing in quality over time, or at least fluctuating in quality wildly from one to the next. I suspect this is caused by the rigid time-based release schedule, but it’s hard to pin down a single cause.
Still, it’s obvious that Ubuntu needs a lot of work to be usable my the majority of people.
I think Mark Shuttleworth hit the right tone. He’s the guy at the top of the Ubuntu family tree and he also heads up Canonical. He’s a businessman and frankly can’t afford to dragged into petty fan cat fights over who’s OS is the daddy. And we all know it’s Ubuntu anyway
p
Without third party software or additional bundled Microsoft software, Windows 7 Beta is pretty much a barren wasteland. It’s not like Ubuntu where there is a repository of free applications to get you started. Although there are rumours Microsoft are building an App Store for Windows 7. You can bet the applications won’t be free.
A lot of people are currently saying they are getting faster boot times. Well I get faster boot times with a fresh install of any OS. Windows 7 is still fundamentally Windows Vista. So months of installing and uninstalling software should cripple it nicely. And a lot of fans are clearly forgetting Microsoft are cutting them off on August 1st and they’ll have to pay out cold hard cash to keep on playing with their new toy.
I believe vendors are giving Linux serious consideration. Especially for products like netbooks that are sold more as appliances rather than PCs. Dell has a decent range of Ubuntu systems in the US. We have some Ubuntu systems from Dell in the UK and in other countries. HP went as far as to totally redesign the interface for their implementation. Acer also have a custom distro on their netbooks. And we can’t forget the Asus Eee. Of which some 30% to 40% are sold with Linux preloaded.
I’m not sure what people are expecting the big PC companies to do. They’ll only offer Linux if it earns them a profit. I think they deserve some credit for taking the first step.
The situation with Dell is frustrating. It does my head in. They promised so much and then delivered so little in comparison to the hype. But they did deliver something and they are putting in the effort to make some systems Ubuntu compatible. I also have to give them top marks for their Ubuntufied system restore option. It works absolutely flawlessly. It’s just a shame they can’t roll it out on Windows systems.
I agree that Linux and Ubuntu will get recognition through reviews of Windows 7. However, I feel that Linux still has too many problems with being the techies machine of choice and not made for the general consumer.
Apple gives people iTunes, GarageBand and FinalCut. Microsoft gives people MS office, iTunes and Windows Movie Maker. Linux…well it gives you what you need, but has a lot of overhead if you have depended on these Apple and Microsoft software packages for a long time.
Sure, open office and iTunes clones are available on Linux surely streamlines a lot of these things. However, too many consumers are going to throw a fit when trying to convert to Linux.
Linux suffers a little from being so flexible. Do you use KDE or do you use Gnome? Do you install a deb or an rpm? You can do things faster from a command line??
“joe-the-plumber” says “no way!”
I enjoy Ubuntu and it has made some amazing progress in getting people to use Linux. I just don’t see Linux going out to the masses until some things get standardized and until Windows users can easily jump to the OS without having to search for installation and file transfer answers online before they can do any of the every day things they do on their Windows machines.
Maybe Ubuntu will be the new market leader. May not be as popular now but give it time. I think it will take off in the right direction, as long as their are backers. Problem is, that the OS is free off their site.. so why will developers work for this?
I read articles like this and amaze me, i work selling computers and I never have a single customer asking me for a different OS ( meaning linux and ubuntu etc…, they just ask when the next version of windows is coming.
Gnu/Linux, and Ubuntu specifically is “ready for the masses’; but only if the masses understand that “Microsoft” and “computers” are not one and the same. Most folks have no clue that “hardware” and “software” are a separate entity, other than maybe the latest “Wheel of Fortune” CD, or the latest anti-virus update.
Just as they followed the SUV trend, and Michael Jackson, they follow the Microsoft “show” – Ubuntu has not become something to envy or master; maybe because it’s masked by the same 20 year old mantras as the Gloved One or whatever drives the populace.
I have not booted into XPSP3 in over a year, and integrate seamlessly with fellow “Microsofties”. I just have to be adept at knowing what I want and how to make it work in the rare cases that there’s some proprietary impediment or ignorant source who chooses to hinder those that do not play their games.
People! These tools are not proprietary, only the “brands” are. You buy a hammer you buy nails, but if you acquire nails for free, are they any less able to build a business with?
Well maybe you can’t sue the nail maker, but (and that has been told to me many times why open source is not ready to Capatalist Business…) that does not make those nails inferior. Bend one, heat one, test them out for yourself, and then decide – why buy the nail when there are free ones that do the job just as well?
I know all of this, but the clueless masses need to be told/sold on this; this is the sad fact of the general public, and one which Canonical needs to attend to.
MRK
“Similarly, the mainstream media — yes, even outlets like The Wall Street Journal and BusinessWeek — will mention Linux alternatives as they review Windows 7. Trust me: this is going to happen”.
Are you sure of that? Currently in France, vendors sells netbooks with Windows XP or .. netbooks (I mean they write “with Linux” in very very small fonts).
It’s true that main french newspapers talked about Linux once or twice last year, but that’s all. Personally I don’t know any “no-geek guy” nor using Linux, neither knowing Linux. Newspapers will talk more about Linux when vendors assumes to sell PC without Windows. True, Dell started this, but only on its online store. And what about Packard-Bell, Toshiba or HP? Nothing.
About what Mark Shuttleworth said (so Linus Torvalds did too), I think they’re fair-play about Se7en. I really like Ubuntu and the way Gnome goes, but I find a bit too sad (I’d like something beautiful like OS X). That’s a great reason why that, if you’re right, Se7en will be the winner in these reviews.
Without Linux and OS X, Se7en would have been only a Vista R2 more heavy than ever. Competition is very important.
“Similarly, the mainstream media — yes, even outlets like The Wall Street Journal and BusinessWeek — will mention Linux alternatives as they review Windows 7. Trust me: this is going to happen.”
That’s an interesting prediction. Only a few years ago I would have said it would never happen, but I think that may have changed. In fact, all the articles discussing how Windows will crush Linux or netbooks (or vice versa) may be an early sign of this. I will certainly be watching to see.
I read articles like this and amaze me, i work selling computers and I never have a single customer asking me for a different OS ( meaning linux and ubuntu etc…, they just ask when the next version of windows is coming..
The comparisons between OSX and Linux are laughable. If I make my OS only work on my hardware, and then sell my hardware with the OS preinstalled, of course everything will work. It had better!
Windows and Linux don’t do that. Neither one are hardware manufacturers.
Windows mainly relies on the hardware manufacturer to make their stuff work with windows, and having Windows preinstalled on 90% of new PC’s, the hardware manufacturers make sure their stuff works with it. With Windows having such market share, if something doesn’t work, they can just say “We don’t support that company’s hardware.”
Linux, with their limited market share, have to try to make their OS work with as much hardware as they can, otherwise new users have too many problems getting things to work and give up. It sounds like a losing battle from the get-go, but support is growing with every release. Since Linux is getting almost no love from the manufacturers, it will be some time before you see something at the store labeled “Works with Linux.” All this gets fixed when PC manufacturers preinstall it. Then, they are responsible to make it work before it gets to the customer.
Most of the problems people have with Linux would happen if you tried to install OSX on a regular PC, or Windows on a Mac, or actually like trying to install either OS on a hybrid of Mac and PC parts. You might get lucky and have everything work, but you probably won’t.
Is Linux ready for the masses?
That depends on who you consider the masses.
If the masses buy computers with the OS preinstalled, then yes.
If the masses are looking on the internet for an OS to replace the one their computer came with, then no.
But how many people even upgraded from Win XP to Vista or OS9 to OSX themselves? The masses just buy a new computer, and use what comes on it, or call a geek to fix/upgrade it for them.
If the stores gave the same shelf space and support to each OS (this is considering Linux as one,) While Windows would still be #1, I am sure that Linux would break free of the “geek only” label.
“Since Linux is getting almost no love from the manufacturers, it will be some time before you see something at the store labeled ‘Works with Linux’.”
Good idea, it could be a great beginning. The problem is that it would probably be something like ‘Works with Linux kernel 2.6.28+’, and that’s not understandable for most people.
Things would be easier if drivers were open source…
Windows seven is a revamped XP. They’ve just improved some few things but the thinguie is still the same.
As far as the comment about Ubuntu and sound drivers go… one of the desktops where I installed MSDN Vista Ultimate still cannot play music to all surround speakers with all latest drivers and updates.
Maybe Ubuntu will be the new market leader. May not be as popular now but give it time. I think it will take off in the right direction, as long as their are backers. Problem is, that the OS is free off their site.. so why will developers work for this??
@Mike (#12) – Mac has a distinct advantage over linux here – they control the hardware as well as the software, so it had better work perfectly! I think it’s astonishing how good linux has become at the hardware game.
In 7.04 (my first Ubuntu, but not my first linux) all sorts of stuff was broken and took days to figure out.
In 8.04, my wireless needed a little help getting started (about 5 minutes) and my tablet needed significant help.
In 9.04, everything worked immediately – no configuration at all.
When I first started this very laptop in Vista, I had many many configuration issues – and it came preloaded.
I think linux is doing very well for itself. Mac and Win certainly have their places, but it’s not on my desk.