As Microsoft pumps up Windows 7 for a potential Fall 2009 release, the operating system has received generally favorable buzz. But now, some folks are starting to wonder if Windows 7 will somehow save IT sales. The VAR Guy thinks not. Here’s why.
The folks at Blogcritics magazine suggest Windows 7 could potentially bail out the the tech industry. But that’s a 1990s mindset.
A decade ago, Wintel (Windows on Intel) drove the IT market. Businesses and some consumers planned their “refresh” cycles around hardware and software upgrades from Intel and Microsoft. Wintel today remains a dominant force in terms of market share and mind share. But Wintel no longer sits at the center of the IT universe. Instead, kids and businesses alike get their software and content from the Web.
As long as their PCs have a Web browser, broadband access and enough memory to multitask between multiple online applications, most users no longer care about “upgrading” to the latest operating system.
Skeptical? Consider this question: Name a “killer application” for Windows 7. (Bueller? … Bueller? …) Without a killer application there’s no reason to run out and buy a new operating system.
To Microsoft’s credit, Windows 7 seems to offer a faster, more streamlined design vs. Windows Vista. Even the folks at The Wall Street Journal have given Windows 7 a mostly favorable review.
Momentum Starts — In 2010
But that doesn’t mean consumers and businesses will run out and buy Windows 7 the day it ships. The old software upgrade market — where users install new operating systems on old computers — seems to be fading away. Instead, PCs, netbooks and notebooks have become low-cost hardware commodities.
Translation: The vast majority of Windows 7 adopters will first discover the operating system when they purchase it pre-installed on a new PC. And those Windows 7 PC sales aren’t going to “save” the IT market.
Businesses are going to take a long, hard look at Windows 7 before making the move. And some consumers are actually going to consider alternatives — Mac OS X and yes, even Linux netbooks — before they make a buying decision.
The irony: Windows 7′s release may actually slow down corporate PC sales temporarily in late 2009 as businesses weigh their upgrade paths. But assuming Microsoft gets Windows 7 right, The VAR guy expects to see strong demand for the operating system throughout 2010 and beyond.
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The question for businesses will continue to be “What will Windows X and Office 20xx offer me that Windows XP and Office 2003 don’t?” And the simple answer to that is…nothing.
“The question for businesses will continue to be “What will Windows X and Office 20xx offer me that Windows XP and Office 2003 don’t?” And the simple answer to that is…nothing.”
I would agree with the Office issue, but I assume that people will need to run a new OS as Microsoft stops supporting XP and doesn’t fix the myriad of security holes that crop up.
I am very sceptical as to whether Win 7 can be that much faster than Vista as it has been rushed out so quickly and is apparently only really a version up of Vista with a (slightly?) more lightweight desktop manager. *If* that is the case, it might well mean people in industry seriously look at Linux.
The company I work for could quite happily have a large percentage of its PCs running Linux and run Office with Crossweavers, thus saving a fortune. The only other programs most people need are the Sales system, email and a browser. I actually think most could even use Open Office. If it were my company I would already be implementing this, but the IT department is lazy and I rather suspect there are backhanders going on when you listen to some of the bull**** reasons they come out with for not changing!
Forget the comparisons between Vista and Windows 7. The comparison between Windows XP and Windows 7 is what will be the most telling. Vista was a flop, and the latter comparison will show how far Microsoft has come in nine years. Will it be very far? Will it justify the hundreds of dollars required? That’s what most people will look to.
Geoff_F: You’re on the mark. The migrations will be from XP to 7. Microsoft better make it easy and compelling.
Easy and compelling it won’t be. For the XP to Windows 7 upgrade users will have to do a completely fresh install. Which won’t be a problem for IT shops. That’s how they handle major upgrades anyway. But it will be an issue for some home users.
The compelling part I’m struggling with. I’ve followed all the hype in the on-line press and all the derogatory remarks. The only compelling feature about Windows 7 requires an expensive hardware upgrade that doesn’t really exist yet. That’s a large robust consumer level touch screen.
I’ve searched high and low all over the net and I just can’t find them. There are touch screens out there. But they aren’t large and they aren’t pretty. Which has left me wondering exactly why did Microsoft bundle the touch UI into Windows 7? Unless you have a tablet, there’s no way to use it to it’s full potential. It’s essentially a pointless gimmick.
Windows 7 doesn’t offer anything compelling that Windows XP doesn’t have. At the end of the day if customers, corporate clients and consumers alike, don’t upgrade? Microsoft will simply bring XP back from the dead and everybody will be happy.
Microsoft is on the downward slide. But Windows 7 isn’t “the” make or break moment. Microsoft still has options.
For goodness sake, the Amiga and Atari brands are still doing the rounds. Palm have had more comebacks than Elvis and Apple has had more image changes than Madonna. Companies like Microsoft don’t really die. They become zombieficated. Then get past around like cheap crack whores by IP pimps.
aikiwolfie: You made The VAR Guy smile. He still has 3 Atari 2600s in the attic… no joke. You are right: Windows 7 isn’t make-or-break. But a bad Windows 7 release could accelerate a downward slide (though it will take years for the slide to shift major market share to rivals…)
‘Instead, kids and businesses alike get their software and content from the Web.’… I’m thinking Sharepoint or Citrix Access Essentials, I can make a good buck either way, as a VAR. Right?
We know this is best for everyone, when all I need is a browser to run my mission-critical business application. This is a selling point for any app. What is the backend? Mysql/php or SQL/.NET? This is another selling opportunity for the Systems Integrator/VAR (SI/VAR). Where is the most margin? Of course: SQL/.NET.
‘And some consumers are actually going to consider alternatives — Mac OS X and yes, even Linux netbooks — before they make a buying decision.’ Some consumers are influenced by what they read, like buying PCWeek for the plane-ride home from a business trip and deciding that Apple will meet their corporate needs and we will always love and revere Steve Jobs, or WOW! – I can get this stuff for nothing and saunter into a retail store and buy the lowest common denominator and plug it into my corporate network, and everything works. Sorry, Windows Vista Home Premium doesn’t cut it for the office network… Can I return the stuff, to the retailer? ‘No. but I can sell you the right stuff!’ Says a local systems integrator/VAR. Game over, Microsoft wins. The salesman will ALWAYS get paid. Right?
VARs Rule and so does theVARguy.com!
HurdyGurdy: So are you saying Microsoft VARs remain profitable regardless of Windows 7′s performance? Or do you see VARs pushing into alternative platform opportunities?
I think the small VARs out there are open to selling an open source platform, if they could make a similar margin that they are making selling Microsoft products, but right now a comparable margined product does not exist in the open source world, but I will keep monitoring the situation, and let you know if I find a viable alternative. With all their hype, Novell is still low margin. I have sold a few RedHat Linux annual support agreements and the margin isn’t bad there, but still lackluster compared to selling Microsoft products with their high margin third party complimentary products.
You only have to lose one Novell deal on price to understand how bad the situation is. And then when or if this happens to the small VAR, they make sure it will never happen again. I had a quote on a large groupwise opportunity to a customer who got a competitive price from an online retailer. If I were to have matched the online retailers price, I stood to make $180 on an $18,000 deal, and this customer was a slow pay. I called Ingram, they couldn’t help. I called Novell, they couldn’t help. I went ahead and took the order from the customer, and sat on it long enough to where I was able to softsell them into evaluating other comparable products and never looked back.
Fortunately they went with another email platform, so I didn’t have to worry about losing money on the Novell deal. In summation, I never lost a Novell deal to another vendor within my customerbase, and did the things I needed to do to minimize my reliance on Novell going forward.