Apple-related news doesn’t always impact the broader IT channel, but there’s something to be said about recent developments at Apple’s Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) 2010. Indeed, the conference apparently included nothing about Macintosh computers and the ubiquitous Mac OS operating system they run. While Apple’s vision may be a future of iPhones and iPads, the future for the SMB/Enterprise community is actually one without a PC as well. Don’t believe me? Read on…
The two biggest upcoming trends we’ve been looking at — heck — everyone has been looking at are virtualization and cloud-computing. Both of these technologies, which in some ways compliment each other, do not rely on traditional ‘PCs.’ Virtualization introduces the idea of a thin or zero-client, and cloud-computing introduces the idea that the computer is non-essential, so long as a browser window is attached to something with enough CPU power.
In a way, it harkens back to the days of terminal emulation; with one super-computer running the show. But what about the laptop, you say? With BlackBerry and a plethora of other mobile devices entering the SMB and Enterprise world, even the idea of a laptop for travel is starting to seem unnecessary. The iPad has shown that with just a keyboard and a screen, a lot of work can get done. Even the netbook strays more and more away from the idea of a traditional PC as operating systems like Chrome OS and MeeGo, Moblin and Ubuntu offshoots enter the arena. These operating systems are designed to eradicate the idea of a traditional desktop environment and give you just what you need either locally, or on the cloud exclusively.
If you think about it, more and more technology is being designed around having your information when you need it, and a lot of it is essentially finding ways to take the information off that ball-and-chain PC box in your house and make it easily available elsewhere. Google Apps, DropBox, Box.net, (insert your favorite cloud service here) are changing the way we edit, review and consume content on a scale that increasingly makes the traditional idea of the PC obsolete.
There will still be super-computers and servers, and high-tech PCs for professional work and gaming, but those devices can eventually be seen like appliances and less like the cozy box with all your family pictures on it.
Likewise, the savings on security software and IT management in the SMB and Enterprise (over the long-term) from virtualization and cloud computing will add up. I would imagine at some point it’ll be a no-brainer to move everything to private clouds and virtualized infrastructures. With the right type of thin- or zero-client, the only upgrades required would be on the main server, be it storage, CPU or RAM. (As a former help-desk technician, I can’t tell you how much time and money was spent on software, RAM and HDD’s, and how much of a hassle it was to re-purpose an old computer instead of getting a new one.)
So is the death of the traditional PC as we know it coming soon? Maybe it’s not around the corner, but in the next 10 years I think it’ll be unlikely that ‘home base’ will exist on a hard drive in a home office and more likely it will exist on a cloud.
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Just a friendly reminder: The VAR Guy doesn’t always agree with his team of contributors. Our resident blogger believes PCs will never die. They’ll just change form factors… coming in different shapes, sizes and designs for various market segments. And Q1 2010 PC shipments apparently set a record. Still, blog author David Courbanou has a point: Apple’s main business has shifted to mobile computing. And portions of the PC market certainly seem to envy Apple these days…
-TVG
Death of the PC? No. Death of the Mac? Yes. Apple will eliminate all products that aren’t fully locked down (like the iPhone, iPod, and iPad).
Bill@2: Interesting perspective. The VAR Guy uses a mix of Mac and PC products. He’s not willing to let go of either platform… even if Steve Jobs comes calling for them.
-TVG
Death of the PC is far more likely than death of the Mac at this point. No one wants it anymore. Used to be people were afraid of the Mac. Now, literally EVERYONE wants one. Talk to your neighbors, co-workers, etc…
One thing I learned a long time ago about computer users is that they ALL want the best they can get. Doesn’t matter if they need it or not. Today, everyone knows the Mac is the better product, just as everyone knows a PC can’t function very long on the ‘net without coming to a crawl. Sure, a tech user can keep on top of it, but why should they have to do all the extra work? Shouldn’t the computer do that?
Bill, exactly what is going to keep the PC alive? IT nerds? These are the only people that want it to live on. Seriously, no one cares about the PC anymore. No one even plays games on the PC anymore. I think M$ would rather lose money on the xBox (make out of old Mac processors too, how ironic.)
Besides, the Mac has more software! (remember that old argument?) Far more! Windows is just an ‘app’ on the Mac–exactly what it deserves to be. After all, it was stillborn from the Mac in the first place. Kind of restores my faith in humanity, actually.
Brian: The VAR Guy runs Mac, Windows and Linux. But the overall PC market remains 90 percent Windows. The shift you describe would require years and years to unfold… if it happens at all.
Still, The VAR Guy never considered buying a Mac … until Mr. Jobs returned to the CEO chair and shifted Mac OS to a modern kernel and the Intel foundation…
-TVG
VAR Guy: PC will never completely go away, but I think it’s already lost it’s mojo. It’s good enough for simple tasks, just not really a viable alternative to the Mac for general computing, IMHO. Also, I liked what you said last night. To paraphrase, IT staffers have propped themselves up with buggy software for decades.
Brian: The VAR Guy rather enjoys your perspectives. Keep ‘em coming and thanks for visiting TheVARguy.com
-TVG
Interesting debate here. My 2 cents are a tad biased as our business revolves around managing PC’s (soon to be Mac’s) and the end user, in what we refer to as the workstation.
While our users range from SMB employees to consumers across North America, every day we witness the figures TVG quoted, RE Windows holding 90% of the market.
While the population is aging, and the next big age cohort (gen y’s) are starting to hold a more predominant place in the market… there are still a tonne of users who have “grown up” and lived with Windows based products… users who may be slowly retiring but certainly aren’t leaving the market anytime soon (especially in technology years).
I agree that there will be a shift towards thin and mobile clients as economically speaking it just makes sense.
However these clients, just as PC’s do today, will need to be updated, tuned up and so forth to ensure reliable performance. I believe this theory will remain true for many more years… and that there is a lot more money to be made in doing so both in the consumer and SMB segments.
I suppose that this shift to the cloud, regardless of how unproven it is in terms of market dominance, reiterates IBM’s theory of computing from way before my time.
I find a bit of this amusing – comparing a BlackBerry to a laptop and declaring that MAC will replace the PC are the two tops.
1st. The BlackBerry, while handy, doesn’t really let one type out a entire report and print it. I suppose someone could type it out on a BlackBerry, but I would pity their hands. Need I really go into more detail than this?
2nd. As The Var Guy says, 90% of people still use PC; therefore, who do the hackers and spammers namely target? My friends always argue that they’ll get a MAC OS simply because viruses that effect Windows can’t effect a MAC thanks to the coding. All the background junk which PC incorporates to protect its users makes the system performance seem a bit sluggish, but if 90% of the population shift to using MAC, who’s going to start getting the bulk of the malware?
As for tiny, hand-held devices (such as cell phones, iPods, or even electronic readers like the Amazon’s Kindle): I simply can’t see them replacing PC because they won’t be able to COMFORTABLY perform all the functions the users would want – not unless people are ok with severe arthritis.
I thought my response would come off as biased so I will point to a well written counter-point:
http://www.itbusiness.ca/mobile/mArticle.asp?id=58254
Jay: Thanks for the link and healthy reality check. More than 14,000 people are attending this week’s Microsoft Worldwide Partner Conference in Washington, D.C. — Another sure sign that PCs remain alive and well…
-TVG