The sky is falling. A double-dip recession is here. And PC sales are slowing. At first glance, the IT channel should be worried by PC sales projections. But take a closer look and you’ll discover that PC sales aren’t slowing. Not at all. In fact, they’re generating double-digit growth. Here are the details.
First, the facts: Gartner has revised its PC sales projections downward. During the second half of 2010, Gartner expects PC sales growth to be about 15.3 percent — about two percent below the previous forecast.
The VAR Guy repeats: PC sales are going to grow 15.3 percent in the second half of 2010.
Does that mean PC sales are slowing? Absolutely not. Instead, it means the market isn’t growing as fast as Gartner had initially hoped. And nobody has bothered to ask the obvious question: Was Gartner’s original forecast too optimistic to begin with?
Misleading Headlines
Either way, misinformation is flying across the web. Even as PC sales potentially grow 15.3 percent in the second half of 2010, we have these head-scratching headlines…
- CIO Insight: Gartner: PC Sales Are Slowing
- CRN: PC Sales are Slowing for the Rest of the Year
- Datamation: PC Sales Are Slowing Down
Far more accurate: Barron’s, which states: Gartner Trims Second Half PC Growth View On Weaker Economy.
Raising Kane
The seeds for this blog entry were planted during the Channel Happy Hour podcast on August 31.
Podcast co-host and MSP Services Network CEO Gerard Kane pointed out all the misinformation about PC sales slowing. At one point, Kane put down his drink long enough to rant long and hard about the IT media industry’s failings on the topic. Co-host Brett Martin apparently was too busy shopping online for new PCs, and didn’t weigh in on the debate.
Then, Chuck Lennon, president of TeamLogic IT, noted that his biggest challenge involved finding more sales people to help TeamLogic IT businesses across the U.S.
Lennon, it seems, faces a wonderful problem: Managing growth.
Far From Perfect
Admittedly, the economy remains troublesome for quite a few high-tech companies. During recent earnings calls, Cisco Systems and Intel both expressed some concern about economic conditions.
But here are two open-ended questions:
- In a bad economy like this, isn’t 15.3 percent PC sales growth for the second half of 2010 pretty darn good?
- Was Gartner’s original forecast — around 17.3 percent sales growth — too optimistic, and was the downward revision merely an attempt to do spin control?
Hmmm… Plenty of questions for The VAR Guy and his loyal readers to ponder.
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So you are are saying there is still revenue in product sales? It’s a good thing the companies selling a lot of those PCs to end users aren’t selling the attached services in competition with MSPs that are strictly services focused. Oh wait, they are… If only there was a way for service providors to quote products effeciently. Hmmm, I’m tempted to throw in a plug for VARStreet (www.varstreet.com) right about now but I will refrain.
Mark: Welcome back from VMworld. Thanks for avoiding the temptation. Oh, wait…
-TVG
TVG,
Glad the VAR Guy is listening in to alternate sources of information…wish we had more of a debate on the merits of product on the last Channel Happy Hour. I guess I will need to bring out my soap box on a future episode. To Mark’s point, there is still money to be made in giving your customers “good box”.
And as for the reported “downturn” in PC sales, I’ll take 15% growth any day of the week. It is all a matter of perspective, and I guess my glass is half full.
Lastly, Bad economy? I think not. Just not as good as it was 3 years ago. Time to recalibrate.
Enjoy,
Gerard
Gerard “Raising” Kane
Quiet Co-Host, with hardly an opinion
http://www.channelhh.com
Yes, 15% growth = a good day at most offices…
-TVG