Oracle President Mark Hurd (pictured) and Channel Chief Judson Althoff will be on hand June 28-29, when the software giant hosts the Oracle PartnerNetwork Kickoff event for fiscal year 2012. The kickoff event comes a few days after Oracle announced 4Q 2011 financial results. So how is Oracle performing heading into this new fiscal year? Here are five key questions for Hurd and Althoff.
1. Hardware Hiccup?: Oracle’s Q4 revenues climbed a healthy 13% to $10.8 billion and new software license revenues were up 19% to $3.7 billion. But hardware systems revenues fell 6% to $1.2 billion. Was that a temporary hardware hiccup or is the Sun hardware business contracting for the long haul?
2. Big Ambitions: In the earnings statement, Hurd said more than 1,000 Exadata machines have been installed worldwide, and Oracle’s goal is to triple that figure in fiscal year 2012. Althoff has previously stated that Exadata will be critical to Oracle’s cloud and channel strategies. But can Oracle and its partners really triple the Exadata installed base this year? Hmmm…
3. The Itanium Debate: On second thought, The VAR Guy doesn’t have any plans to poke around on this story. As most readers know, Hewlett-Packard went ballistic when Oracle ended software development for the Itanium processor. In reality it’s a big debate that has very small implications for most VARs.
4. Service Provider Licensing: Oracle hasn’t built its own cloud. But the company claims to be the leading software provider for most cloud-centric companies. So, which ISVs are marching forward with Oracle in the cloud? The VAR Guy is tracking down the answers.
5. OPN Specialized: Let’s end this blog entry where is began… focusing on the overall OPN Specialized partner program. Last year, Althoff called on former Sun partners to join OPN Specialized. And he told existing Oracle partners to cross-train in servers and storage. So, did partners heed Althoff’s advice? And what’s the new advice for fiscal year 2012?
The VAR Guy is gathering some answers while visiting Oracle’s Redwood Shores, Calif., headquarters this week. Stick around for updates.
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I smell a whole bunch of Exa-baloney out of Oracle these days.
It made me wonder last year why Larry Ellison and Safra Catz would talk so much about Exadata, everywhere they spoke. And now it makes sense.
They have been trying to repeat over and over to their customers, financial analysts, industry analysts, their own employees, and the press, that the Exadata machines are so hot they can’t keep them on the shelves. Constantly talking about how big the pipeline is, etc.
It seemed odd. But now I get it. They are trying to use the old shady salesman tactic of “if you say something enought times, it will become true, even if it is not at first”, at a macro level. Sort of like how those EST guys years ago operated (for those old enough to remember Werner Erhard). When you see people like Ellison and Catz repeating something over and over it is wise to take a step back and ask “why do they want this to happen?” and “is it really true?” and “what would it mean for me if I listen to them?”.
Why they want it to happen is fairly obvious. If they can get people to buy these things, the customers have to use 100% Oracle hardware and software. They are not “open systems” (the type which have been developing and improving the cost/computingcapabilities of end users for the last 20+ years). So it would be the ultimate lock-in of hardware and software, with prices to rise over time for upgrades and maintenance. I have heard of deep discounts for Exa-stuff right now, and it makes sense for Oracle, since the Oracle guys would seek to get their pound of flesh over time when the customer has no choice of what software to run on the Exa-system. Obviously you can see where this would leave a customer; with a bunch of hardware that can only run Oracle brand software, and requires Oracle/Sun storage to add onto it – so no flexibility. And the inability to switch the software to other “open systems” -”trapped like a rat” as the Three Stooges used to say.
A second question is how true the stories are of customer purchases and pipeline of these systems. Again I go back to the “say it enought times and it will happen mindset”, and the fact that they go so overboard in talking about it, it makes me darn skeptical. If the financial analysts and much of the press were not so fearful of Oracle, they might do some actual surveys and find out the truth vs. Larry/Safra trying to “shape” reality.
Bill: The VAR Guy will ask Oracle for a reality check. In particular does 1,000 “installed” Exadata Systems equal 1,000 “sold” Exadata systems? Our resident blogger will be in and around Oracle’s campus this week, seeking updates on all five items above.
-TVG
Mr. Bickel – I can’t imagine what you are talking about regarding EST. It doesn’t appear that you are familiar with the program. EST wasn’t about saying anything over and over or even imparting information. It was about people experiencing who they really are – their power to transform the quality of their life.
VARGuy – My guess is that you will hear very similar answers on Exadata questions. All very positive and full of confidence. It is a “top down” plan to fool people into thinking it is the hottest thing in technology. You can just tell by their over-obviousness of the approach.
Howard – you may be right about the overall goals of EST, but one of the tactics that EST-holes (as we used to call them) used in business was to repeat something over and over, and get your subordinates to repeat something over and over, until it “poof” becomes reality. I worked around the people at Computerland Corporate in the early days who went in hook-line-and-sinker to the EST approach, and it was weird, weird stuff.
Yep, I been in the game awhile.
I have no experience with Computerland Corporate but I don’t think crudely labeling people serves any useful purpose. Est,as I’m sure you know, no longer exists and hasn’t since 1982. I guess you are referring to something that happened a long time ago. With all due respect, it might be useful for you to take The Landmark Forum (the program of Werner Erhard that followed Est) so you can perhaps get a better understanding of where these people are coming from.
Bill@4: The VAR Guy got some stats from Oracle regarding Exadata sales trends. Our resident blogger will post a follow-up blog soon. -TVG