The VAR Guy

The grand experiment is over. Wal-Mart has locked Linux out of its stores. The retail giant has stopped selling Linux-based PCs — though Walmart.com will continue selling the so-called Green gPC from Everex, according to the Associated Press. What does this mean for the open source desktop movement in the consumer market? Here are some thoughts from The VAR Guy.

Well, The VAR Guy is eating a healthy serving of crow today. He’s been negative on Novell for a few years, and he frequently questioned the company’s open source software strategy. But according to a new piece of financial news, the Linux provider is performing better than Wall Street expected. Here’s the scoop, which surprised our resident blogger.

During a phone call a few days ago, The VAR Guy listened intently as Novell’s VP of Global Channel Sales, Pat Bernard, described her four-point strategy to rebuild the company’s partner organization. Although Novell faces an uphill climb in several areas, Bernard’s experience in the enterprise software space could be a plus.

Give Novell credit. Rather than slamming The VAR Guy for a particularly harsh blog post about the software company, Novell reached out to him and engaged in a healthy dialog. During a lengthy telephone chat, Novell Senior VP and Chief Marketing Officer John Dragoon (pictured) discussed the company’s business performance and strategy. Here’s a recap of the conversation, and some updated reactions from The VAR Guy.

Okay, the headline is a bit dramatic. But the Sun-MySQL business combo makes The VAR Guy wonder: Will Novell wake up and start buying open source application providers … or is Novell doomed to repeat the exact same mistakes it made in the 1990s? Alas, Novell in 2008 looks a lot like Novell from a decade ago. That’s not good. Here’s why.

Whenever The VAR Guy hears chatter about Novell, he thinks of Avis — the Number 2 rental car company that proudly declares “We try harder” as it pursues the market leader (Hertz, er, Red Hat). Hmmm. Is 2008 the year that all of Novell’s hard work in the open source market finally pushes the company into the fast lane? UBS, the Wall Street analyst firm seems to think so. But The VAR Guy isn’t so sure.

Sometimes, reporters spend too much time looking at a tree and never see the bigger forest. For instance, lots of folks are writing about Novell changing its channel chief. Excuse The VAR Guy as he yawns. In fact, something far more strategic — and interesting — has occurred at Novell.

Novell has made yet another push into the small business market with a server and desktop suite. It’s a worthwhile effort, but The VAR Guy thinks Novell will need to bundle in more third-party solutions for the suite to gain traction for customers.

There’s a growing body of evidence suggesting that Novell and Red Hat could soon face new competition in the Linux server market. Something new from Microsoft? Nope. Another attack from Oracle? Not quite. This time, the competition could come from tiny Canonical and the company’s latest Ubuntu Linux release.