The VAR Guy

As the big Novell BrainShare conference gets set to start on March 21, Novell’s board of directors is considering an unsolicited offer for the company. But here’s the twist: More software developers seem to be flocking to Novell’s SUSE Linux platform — at a time when Novell’s ownership status could potentially change. Here’s why partners seem to be flocking to SUSE Linux.

Elliott Associates, the hedge fund that’s seeking to acquire Novell and SUSE Linux, is denying a report that it plans to break up Novell and sell off the pieces. Hmmm… But The VAR Guy still wonders: Will Novell and Elliott Associates reach a buyout agreement in time for Novell BrainShare — a big customer and partner that starts March 21? Here’s some speculation.

Canonical wants Ubuntu Linux to run on a range of devices — from mobile Internet devices all the way up to high-end servers and cloud systems. But there are two markets where Canonical has no plans to push Ubuntu. Here they are.

Novell’s board of directors is facing a pair of symbolic deadlines: The VAR Guy thinks Novell will need to somehow address the pending private equity takeover bid by Elliott Associates before the BrainShare conference starts March 21 in Salt Lake City, Utah and before Red Hat announces quarterly results on March 24. Here’s why.

Initially, The VAR Guy wasn’t all that impressed with Novell’s latest financial results, announced Feb. 25. But our resident blogger overlooked one important fact: Novell’s SUSE Linux business is now break-even. That’s an important milestone — but what does it say about the broader open source industry’s march to profitability? Here are some clues.

Novell’s latest quarterly financial results, revealed today, were a mixed bag for the SUSE Linux provider. Novell made progress in some areas. But didn’t really thrive in others. Where does the company go from here. The answers will likely surface at the Novell BrainShare 2010 conference (March 21-25, Utah), where Novell will strive to energize channel partners and customers? In the meantime, here’s a look at Novell’s current business condition … through the eyes of The VAR Guy.

Red Hat leads the Linux-driven server market — mostly because of Red Hat’s ability to work closely with Independent Software Vendors (ISVs). But two recent moves by Canonical and Novell, respectively, show promise on the Ubuntu and SUSE Linux ISV fronts. Here are the details.

Each day, the drumbeat for Ubuntu Server Edition is getting slightly louder. In recent weeks, a growing list of ISVs (independent software vendors) has vowed to support Canonical’s Linux server operating system. The latest example involves Mailspect launching antispam and email archiving solutions for Ubuntu Server.

The VAR Guy has a boatload of blog entries that are worth writing. But time is short and The VAR Guy is looking to exit, stage left for a few hours. So here are six channel entries our resident blogger didn’t have a chance to write for the week ending January 8, 2010.

When Novell announced a reorganization this week, The VAR Guy took some time to digest the news. He sipped his latte and mulled Novell’s stated direction. Now, our resident blogger is ready to weigh in with an opinion. Specifically, keep an eye on Novell Senior VP Joe Wagner. His partner ecosystem moves in 2010 will define whether Novell’s latest business strategy succeeds or fails. Here’s why.

The VAR Guy has openly wondered — again and again — whether Novell will ever connect the dots between its various products groups. A potential answer to that question emerged today. It involves Novell’s Intelligent Workload Management (IWM) strategy, which melds cloud and virtualization opportunities with Novell’s solutions, according to Chief Marketing Officer John Dragoon (pictured). Here’s the scoop, and the implications for solutions providers.

Novell announced quarterly results on December 3. So how are the company’s individual solutions groups performing — particularly the SUSE Linux solutions group? And what’s the latest with Novell’s partner program? The VAR Guy got some perspectives from Novell Chief Marketing Officer John Dragoon. Here’s a recap.

After a one-year hiatus, Novell plans to resume its BrainShare conference for customers and channel partners in 2010, according to Chief Marketing Officer and Channel Chief John Dragoon (pictured). Somewhere, SUSE Linux fans should be celebrating. Here’s why.

When Novell disclosed 3Q financial results today, The VAR Guy quickly spotted good news and bad news: Sales of Novell’s Linux Platform Products continue to impress. But what the heck is happening with Novell’s identity, access and compliance management business — where sales fell sharply? It begs the question: Do Novell’s products really belong together under one roof? Here’s the scoop.

From August 27 through September 4, The VAR Guy will pay particularly close attention to Novell and Red Hat. That nine-day period will provide a healthy reality check for the Linux market — and it may also reveal how open source initiatives are shaping up across the IT channel. Here’s why.

Novell and Tech Data have inked a partnership to promote SUSE Linux and open source application appliances to VARs and channel partners. In some (but not all) ways, the partnership counters recent work by Red Hat and Synnex (co-founders of the Open Source Channel Alliance). Here’s the scoop.

The VAR Guy can’t go into deep details — at least not yet. He’s under a gag order with Novell. But our resident blogger will say this: The software company, with an assist from a Gecko, is finally revving up the SUSE Linux marketing machine.

Alas, Red Hat is the only publicly held open source company that’s consistently profitable. Finding privately held, profitable open source companies is like searching for the proverbial needle in the… well, you get the picture. But during a July 7 conference call, The VAR Guy stumbled onto a profitable, channel-driven open source company that’s making the leap from Europe to North America. Here’s the scoop.

Linux put Red Hat on the map. But growing sales of JBoss open source middleware should make Red Hat a $1 billion company within the next few years. With that goal in mind, Red Hat is launching “partner-only” JBoss roadmap briefings the week of July 20. Here’s the scoop from The VAR Guy.

Few people realize it, but a certain software company has generated $136 million in Linux-oriented sales during the past four quarters. Plus, the mystery company’s Linux sales essentially doubled in 2Q 2009 vs. 2Q 2007. Impressive. So why isn’t this mystery company a Wall Street darling? Here’s the scoop from The VAR Guy.

Novell is starting to connect the dots between SUSE Linux and two recent product acquisitions: PlateSpin and Managed Objects. The VAR Guy isn’t suggesting Novell will dominate tomorrow’s data centers. But during an April 7 seminar in New York, Novell finally delivered a coherent server consolidation strategy for partners, independent software vendors and customers. Here’s the scoop.

Sometimes, investors have the right to attack Novell. But this time around, at least one financial analyst firm seems to be beating up on Novell for a rather foolish reason. Here’s the scoop, from The VAR Guy.

When Novell announces quarterly results Feb. 26, The VAR Guy will be looking beyond earnings per share results and revenue metrics. Our resident blogger wants Novell CEO Ron Hovsepian (pictured) to cover — in depth — the following five points during the earnings call.